After Trump's second term in office, the United States and the world: Undoubtedly, Trump will not only tackle domestic crises with a heavy hand but also create more significant international divisions. The whole world is preparing for how to deal with Trump's potential return. While forgetful people have already forgotten how Trump left in 2020, unlike the positive embrace of Trump by non-establishment politicians and citizens in the United States, the entire international community is more apprehensive and hostile. After all, Trump, unlike Biden, won't unconditionally offer American taxpayers' money.
First, Trump's domestic policy in the United States will showcase conservatism to the fullest extent.
Overcorrection is necessary. The inflation crisis, border crisis, and security crisis created by Biden have posed two major threats to ordinary Americans: firstly, the high cost of living. Today, Americans endure double exploitation: high prices and high interest rates. Secondly, there is a threat to personal safety due to relaxed law enforcement and tolerance of lawbreakers, leading to the worsening of community security in cities managed by the Democratic Party such as Los Angeles and Chicago, where street crime is rampant.
Trump's economic measures are foreseeably two major policies: energy independence and trade negotiations. Energy independence will be immediately implemented and have an immediate effect, but trade negotiations will be more challenging.
Trump's political measures will be a fierce struggle for survival in the jungle because each one involves a life-and-death contest with the establishment. Closing the border and building a border wall are relatively easy, but reforming to prevent the weaponization of law enforcement involving the Department of Justice and the FBI will inevitably be fraught with controversy. Similarly, reforming congressional term limits will undoubtedly cause a huge uproar, and a nationwide constitutional referendum will be put on the agenda.
Therefore, it is understandable why so many people support Trump, while at the same time, why so many people hate him...
Second, Trump's international policy will be a comprehensive retreat under isolationism.
On the first day in the White House, Trump will do three things: first, close the border; second, restart energy independence; and third, halt aid to Ukraine, immediately and compel all parties to negotiate under duress. This is my unequivocal prediction for Trump, differing only in whether it happens on the first day or within the first week.
Trump's glorious isolation under the banner of MAGA will face an even fiercer and more thorough challenge for the first time because he knows the United States won't give him a third chance, so he will push these withdrawal actions to the limit:
NATO cost-sharing negotiations: If Europe does not cooperate, NATO may end up without American funding. Because the United States has already legislated against unilateral withdrawal by the president, but Trump is unlikely to provide more money. Without the United States as a major creditor, NATO is just a paper tiger.
A trade war will ignite globally. Trump will relentlessly pursue a trade war because only through external trade wars and internal tax cuts can the U.S. economy revitalize. And a trade war is the ultimate weapon against globalization.
The Asia-Pacific strategy faces a test. South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan will be walking on thin ice because Trump will first raise the issue of localizing military spending, forcing South Korea and Japan to pay. South Korea and Japan will inevitably stir up anti-American populism, and the entire Asia-Pacific region will be full of crises.